Agricultural outlooks and cultivating the next five years.
On February 15th, 2024, the 100th annual Agricultural Outlook Forum (AOF) is being held in Washington D.C. (1) This forum offers a comprehensive program on various timely topics, including commodity markets, trade, food security, technology, and climate change. AOF welcomes farmers, policymakers, industry leaders, and market analysts to an engaging space with the latest developments in the industry. This year's AOF coincides with the release of the 2022 agricultural census.
Agriculture censuses play a vital role in assessing agricultural activity and productivity across each county and state in the United States. The inaugural national census of agriculture took place in 1840 and recurred every ten years until 1920. Since 1982, the Census of Agriculture has followed a five-year cycle. (2) This comprehensive census covers land use, net income, characteristics of producers and operations, production and sales of agricultural products, inventory of animals, and various other farm-related items as of December 31, 2022.
The Food, Agriculture, and Biodiversity cluster at CLP found the idea of a five-year outlook on the state of agriculture to be particularly intriguing. A five-year horizon strikes a balance, providing a perspective that is distant enough for strategic planning and anticipating future challenges, yet close enough to bring those challenges into the present. This proximity allows us to leverage current assessments and shape realistic goals for the immediate future.
Cluster members wanted to engage in this outlook exercise, contributing their perspectives from different sectors across Harvard in one collaborative blog post. The cluster represents the Divinity, Design, Kennedy, Business, and Engineering schools, showcasing a range of experiences in agriculture, including farm hands, biodiversity activists, startup founders, and data analysts. Each member brings a unique viewpoint to the table, and through this post, they aim to foster a forward-looking approach to the challenges and opportunities their fields will be facing over the next five years.
CLP Cluster logo generated by Fotor AI.
The Flower Shop at the Winslow Farm and Lucas Brown enjoying carrots from Girard Farm. Source: Kyle Saisakorn Sandberg and Winslow’s Website.
Reforesting Diversity in Los Tuxtlas, México
By Daniella Slowik
While the challenges within the globe’s agricultural system are increasingly multifaceted and bureaucratic, a glimmer of hope can be found in the locals of the Sierra de los Tuxtlas in southern Veracruz, México. In a largely agricultural community located near the Lago Catemaco, a common practice since the 1960s has involved clearing large swathes of tropical rainforest to create space for cattle ranches, or ganaderías. Incentivized by the Mexican government in the 1940s during the “Green Revolution” many families traveled to the rural Los Tuxtlas in pursuit of economic liberation powered by their adoption of the ganadería. Over the course of two decades, the desire for large-scale livestock production led to the clearing of nearly 85% of the Los Tuxtlas tropical rainforest and oak savannah. 250,000 hectares of forest fell to 40,000 hectares by 1980. (7)
Sensitive to the significant loss of tree coverage, biodiversity, ambient moisture, and available water in the region’s springs and tributaries, one local – with his remaining retirement funds and the helping hands of family and friends – initiated the Vivero de Tebanca shortly after the 1998 federal decree that established Los Tuxtlas as a biosphere reserve. (8) By collecting saplings and seeds from the nearby rainforest, Antonio Azuela generated a seed bank – a living time capsule of the region’s diverse and endangered flora. Through several grants, Azuela expanded the nursery, hired helpers, and began to reforest nearby springs and the ejidal land (shared community land) of families who sought economic and environmental diversity.
Since the start of the nursery in the early 2000s, several communities on the ejido have converted their parcels from strict cattle ranching into diverse agroforestry systems with native and endemic trees, shrubs, vines, and occasionally, a few cows and goats to graze on the native grass of the understory. Following the passing of Azuela, however, the nursery lost several sources of funding. As it requires a consistent source of grants for its daily operations and free planting approach, its greatest challenge is a fiscal one.
Building from momentum gathered over two decades, the goal of the nursery within the next five years is to grow as a hub for education, environmental stewardship, and economic empowerment through a diversity of native products, rather than livestock alone. Contingent on grants and financial aid, the nursery will continue with its plan to house international students for summer apprenticeships, collaborative workshops, and research development.
With the help of landscape architecture students like myself, the project also aims to increase the number of reforested parcels by developing a catalog for the shared landowners of the Ejido de Tebanca that describes the region’s ethnobotanical plants, their cultural and medicinal uses, and the respective revenues that their products will generate. As an educational tool and incentive to both reforest and increase quality of life, the public catalog will serve as a guide for land transitions from ganadería to silvo-agroforestry.
Over the next five years, all subsequent land transitions will help to ecologically unite the nursery’s fragmented arboretums and the shared parcels of the ejidos, while generating resilient and renewable sources of revenue for the community of Tebanca. Through a prioritization of ecological and economic revitalization, the metaphorical mycorrhizae of the nursery will extend into the shared community land of the Ejido de Tebanca, into the riparian buffers of local tributaries, into the boundaries of the remaining tropical rainforest, and into a larger network of responsible consumers, land stewards, and students.
GramHeet logo and photos of participating farmers. Source: GramHeet
Transforming a Sector Deeply Rooted in Corporate Bias
By Margot Zuckerman
The greatest challenge facing agriculture business over the next five years lies in transforming a system deeply entrenched in corporate-driven policies into one that prioritizes environmental sustainability, nutrition, and affordability. (11) To do so, key market and regulatory players must overcome strong barriers to change: consumers’, farmers’, and businesses’ resistance to behavioral change, along with the trillions of dollars invested in infrastructure that comprises our current food system.
The United States’ current agriculture infrastructure is shaped by the heavy hands—and wallets—of corporate giants and outdated policies. Take, for instance, the 1970s policies implemented under Agriculture Secretary Earl Butz, which blindly pushed for excessive production, sidelining concerns for the environment and global health. (12) This era locked the world into a dependency on monoculture grains from the U.S., and current immense subsidies –even if technically in the form of “insurance” --maintain this unstable equilibrium. (13)
A related challenge in agriculture is fostering innovation within a system that has long favored the status quo. Public corporations, despite their published sustainability initiatives, more often than not lack required momentum or capacity to innovate effectively toward sustainability (e.g., exemplified by how most large agrifood companies believe regenerative agriculture is a key climate solution, yet fewer than 10% have committed to increasing regenerative practices). (14) Fragmented, contradictory, and often ineffective policies provide further barriers to corporate innovation toward sustainability. (15) This convoluted situation calls for a combination of market and regulation driven solutions to address global environmental and nutritional challenges.
Even given the current situation, however, startups offer a promising avenue for transforming the agricultural sector. Unburdened by shareholders, corporate legacies, and bureaucracy, and often unswayed by (inapplicable) support from existing regulation (e.g., from crop insurance provided by the Farm Bill), they can prioritize innovation for sustainability, nutrition, and affordability. However, they face significant barriers in market entry, including overcoming cost constraints and gaining farmers' trust. (16) Overcoming these barriers in the next five years is crucial for introducing innovative practices and disrupting the entrenched agricultural system.
IPC phase description and Famine Relief from the Unas Causeway. Source: FEWS NET website and Madain Project.
A Tale of Co-creation -- Farms and the Families that Grow Them
By Kyle Saisakorn Sandberg
I met the Brown Family in 2019, forming a sincere connection that endures still. Working alongside Lucas Brown on the Budreau’s family farm, referred to as Winslow Farm after its original owners, fostered our friendship and helped shape my connection with family farms. (3) This farmland, located on a small sliver of Falmouth just north of Portland, Maine, boasted numerous fruit trees, vegetable fields, greenhouses, a dedicated team of volunteers, and a seasonal apprentice, which was my role for seven months in 2019. The farming practices were exceptional, yielding the most delicious Asian pears I’ve ever tasted and a bountiful flower business.
Towards the end of 2023, I gathered with the Browns for dinner in South Portland, savoring salmon and oysters harvested by Lucien Brown on the Nonesuch River. In a bizarre synchronicity the meal included carrots from Girard Farm, run by Josh Girard—the very first farm I worked at in 2018. (4) As we visited and shared memories, Grandma Mimi generously served her homemade salad topped with sliced apples. Reflecting on the love within the family, I felt grateful to be present and contemplated the profound lessons learned from Winslow Farm—life is vibrant and collaborative, a co-creation where we own nothing, merely tending to the gifts bestowed upon us with wonder, respect, and gratitude.
My reflections deepened, leading me to consider the challenges awaiting family farms in the next five years. The primary challenge lies in U.S. domestic policies favoring large-scale farms that predominantly export commodities like corn, soybeans, and wheat to international markets. This preference, coupled with limited benefits from agricultural subsidies, often leaves small, locally focused family farms practicing sustainable methods at a disadvantage. The influence of large agricultural businesses on America's food consumption is evident in popular outlets like McDonald's, the grocery store's frozen section, and corner bodegas.
On a global scale, as observed through the lens of the Winslow Farm, The Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) of the United Nations published "The Future of Family Farming in the Context of the 2030 Agenda" in 2019. (5, 6) The report underscores the crucial role family farms play in addressing hunger locally and feeding urban populations. It emphasizes their contributions to food security, nutrition, natural resource management, rural community cohesion, and cultural heritage. Calls to action in the report advocate for a narrative promoting sustainable food systems, fairness, and inclusion, as well as bridging local, agroecological based food systems with new business opportunities to benefit family farmers.
Looking ahead, the next five years present an exciting opportunity for a shift in domestic attention towards narratives centered on small family farms and their integral role in the food system. There is boundless potential for the inclusion of unheard voices—women farmers, immigrant farmers, and young farmers—contributing to a more diverse and sustainable future. My experiences fill me with hope that more individuals can cultivate such meaningful connections with our farms and the families who grow them. As a country we need to embrace the valuable lessons learned from these types of experiences. I look forward to a future where more opportunities arise for people to engage, learn, and co-create with the vibrant tapestry of family farms, fostering a deeper appreciation for the wonders of agriculture.
Vivero de Tebanca logo and pictures from the tree nursery and landscapes of Los Tuxtlas, Veracruz, México. Source: VT website and Daniella Slowik.
Revolutionizing Agriculture in India -- The GramHeet Story
By Ujjwal Kumar
GramHeet, a visionary initiative, derives its name from the harmonious fusion of two Marathi language words— ‘Gram’ and ‘Heet’, symbolizing the essence of 'prosperity of the village’. (9) Steeped in the belief of putting farmers first, GramHeet was conceived with a commitment to uplift rural communities. Co-founded by individuals with roots in smallholder farming families, including myself, Pankaj Mahalle, and Shweta Thakare. Our unique approach stems from first-hand experiences of agrarian distress, positioning GramHeet to address challenges in the agri-food systems in India. We leverage technology ethically to empower smallholder farmers, who disproportionately bear the brunt of the issues affecting the current agricultural system.
Our model integrates technology with on-ground community engagement, providing a holistic solution for smallholder farmers, particularly addressing post-harvest needs. We offer data-driven recommendations for sustainable post-harvest management practices, accompanied by decentralized hermetic storage facilities that allow farmers to store grains without harmful chemicals. This approach not only enhances grain quality and holding capacity, but also facilitates access to formal credit. (10)
GramHeet places a strong emphasis on environmentally friendly practices, encouraging crop diversity and sustainable farming techniques to break the cycle of monoculture and reduce reliance on harmful agricultural inputs. Facilitating market access is another key aspect of GramHeet's model. Our digital platform directly connects farmers with buyers, eliminating intermediaries and ensuring fair prices for produce. Our collaboration with Wadhwani AI to develop a mobile application for foodgrain quality analysis holds the potential to revolutionize the way food quality is assessed, ensuring a more efficient and accurate process for smallholder farmers.
Recognizing the importance of community trust and behavioral change, GramHeet also invests in educational initiatives for farmers. Workshops and training programs on sustainable farming practices and financial literacy play a pivotal role in addressing resistance to behavioral change. Additionally, our programs specifically aim to empower women farmers, enhancing their productivity and ensuring their participation and leadership in the agricultural transformation.
Over the past three years, GramHeet has made significant strides in transforming the lives of over 35,000 smallholder farmers. Through our dedicated efforts, we have successfully curbed food grain losses by a staggering 25,000 metric tons, while simultaneously elevating farmers' incomes by an impressive 40%. As we reflect on our accomplishments, our vision extends beyond the milestones we've achieved. Looking ahead to the next five years, GramHeet aims to reach out to a million smallholder farmers, preventing food grain losses on a monumental scale – a target of 50,000 tons. We are poised to become one of India's leading agricultural companies, pioneering sustainable food systems through strategic collaborations with community-based organizations.
At the heart of our success lies the integration of cutting-edge technologies such as AI and machine learning. This innovative approach not only sets us apart but positions GramHeet as a beacon of hope for the revival of sustainable agriculture on a grand scale in India. Our journey is a testament to the transformative power of collaboration, technology, and a shared commitment to a resilient agricultural future. As we forge ahead, we remain dedicated to making a lasting impact on the agricultural landscape and the communities we serve.
A market map for the agri carbon landscape, one potential agtech focus for startups aiming to disrupt conventional agriculture. Source: Agfunder
Ancient and Modern Challenges
By Elaine Swanson
Humanity has been documenting the painful impact of famine for around 4300 years. (17) The first documented glimpse into the challenges faced by communities in the throes of hunger is found in early Egypt, with one notable artifact that sheds light on this ancient struggle. The Famine Relief from The Causeway of Unas, from Pharaoh Unas reign circa 2345-2315 BCE, is carved with two levels of emaciated figures. The depicted individuals, believed to be desert nomads residing on the edges of the Egyptian desert, are shown collapsing to the ravages of hunger. (18) Egyptologists believe the famine recorded in the Unas Causeway was brought on by a slow but steady reduction in the rainfall that drives the Nile River, coupled with a failure of the government to cope with the problem.
Documentation of famine has evolved significantly over the past thousands of years, as have the aid efforts to alleviate it. The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), a USAID-funded activity based in Washington D.C., plays a crucial role in identifying, summarizing, and projecting urgent food assistance needs and the severity of anticipated acute food insecurity across monitored countries. (19, 20) Publishing their Food Assistance Outlook Brief monthly, FEWS NET forecasts seven months ahead, classifying situations based on the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) scale for Acute Food Insecurity. (21, 22) Using various data collection and analysis methods, such as food prices, seasonal calendars, post-harvest surveys, and rainfall, analysts provide consistent language and standards for their conclusions, facilitating comparisons across countries and regions.
When studying the potential outlook for famine in the monitored countries over the next five years, it is helpful to review FEWS NET’s reports over the past five years. In January 2019, Yemen was forecasted as the country with the largest food security emergency, classified as IPC Phase 4, with 15+ million people in emergency and at risk of famine. (23) Additionally, South Sudan, Sudan, Nigeria, and Somalia were also in IPC Phase 4. Moving to January 2024, the projected countries with the highest populations in need, all classified as IPC Phase 4, were, in order, Ethiopia, Yemen, Nigeria, Sudan, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. (24) The total estimate indicates that 120-130 million people will require assistance at IPC Phase 2 and higher, surpassing the five-year average.
Looking ahead, we can’t ignore the looming challenge of famine and growing populations in need over the next five years. Despite the efforts of FEWS NET and many organizations like them, the story the data tells points to a troubling increase in the scope of humanitarian crises. Issues like environmental problems, geopolitical tensions, violent conflict, and economic inequalities are making vulnerable communities more vulnerable. Taking meaningful action in the face of the impending challenges requires more than just good intentions; it demands a comprehensive understanding of the problem.
Large-scale data models enable us to discern patterns, identify root causes, and most importantly, anticipate trends. Again, the importance of action lies not only in the willingness to make a difference but also in the ability to navigate the complexities of the issue. We can do this through the powerful tool of data analysis. It's our call to move beyond awareness. To move instead the 340 million dollars provided by USAID for food relief efforts. (25) Pointed use of this money makes tangible differences in the lives of those grappling with the slow realities of food insecurity.
From my perspective, food security stands as the commonality that connects disparate lives across time and geography. The challenges faced by desert nomads in Egypt over 4300 years ago echo silently within the modern-day Harvard students of Cambridge, MA. Famine is not an ancient ruin, but a living reality for millions of individuals, both in FEWS NET’s monitored countries and globally. The vulnerabilities in our food system aren't confined to specific regions or demographics; they are a shared concern that touches every corner of the world and are consistently taken for granted. This shared vulnerability is a reminder of our collective responsibility in addressing the pressing issue of food insecurity.
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Thumbnail photo provided by Adam Garcia with McGinnis Ranch.